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📧 Email Newsletter
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- Why My Friend's "Bad" Decision Was Actually Smart
- How to Make Better Decisions in Uncertain Times
- Transform Your Decision-Making: Think in Bets
Preview Text
Discover why your decision quality shouldn't be judged by outcomes alone and how thinking in bets can change your life.
Newsletter Content
Opening Hook
Ever made a decision that didn’t turn out the way you expected? You're not alone. One of my best mates recently moved to Austin for a job that seemed like a dream come true but ended up being a nightmare. Yet, was it really a bad decision?
Main Content
1. The Illusion of Outcome-Based Judgement
We often judge the quality of our decisions by their outcomes. My friend moved to Austin for a job that paid 40% more than his New York position, offered a lower cost of living, and an escape from harsh winters. However, the job collapsed due to unforeseen funding issues, and the culture mismatch was real.
2. The Power of Thinking in Bets
Instead of labeling his move a mistake, let’s consider it a bet. He made a decision with a 70% chance of success and a 30% chance of failure. Thinking in bets forces us to acknowledge the uncertainty and calculate the expected value of our choices.
3. Separating Decision Quality from Outcome Quality
Professional poker players exemplify this mindset. They understand that a good decision can still lead to a bad outcome due to the inherent uncertainty. By separating decision quality from outcome quality, we can learn from our experiences more honestly and avoid irrational self-blame.
Key Takeaway
"You can simultaneously acknowledge that the outcome was bad while maintaining that the decision was sound."
Call-to-Action
Ready to make better decisions under uncertainty? Start thinking in bets and transform how you approach life's big choices.
P.S. Section
P.S. Curious about how thinking in bets can improve your career decisions? Stay tuned for our next newsletter where we dive deeper into applying this mindset at work.